Orebro SK 4-1 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orebro SK and Gefle IF meet at Behrn Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Orebro SK (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK at Behrn Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Orebro SK are significantly better at Behrn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Gefle IF have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Gefle IF have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Orebro SK 1W, Gefle IF 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–3 with Gefle IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Gefle IF — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 52% versus Gefle IF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 58% | Gefle IF 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 2.00 xG and Gefle IF 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.084 / defence 0.928 | Gefle IF attack 1.065 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.155. Gefle IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Orebro SK games / 48 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 57% | Draw 22% | Gefle IF 21%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Gefle IF 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Orebro SK (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 60% | Gefle IF 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 57% | Draw 22% | Gefle IF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Orebro SK 2.00 / Gefle IF 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.084 / def 0.928 | Gefle IF attack 1.065 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Gefle IF xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Gefle IF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Gefle IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Gefle IF?
Orebro SK 4 - 1 Gefle IF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Gefle IF part of?
Orebro SK vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 57% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Orebro SK and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Gefle IF?
Record (3 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 0 | Gefle IF 2W.
What form are Orebro SK and Gefle IF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Gefle IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Orebro SK's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Gefle IF's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — Gefle IF's attack (1.06x) against Orebro SK's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.52
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
3.14
1.14
Gefle IF xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
14%
7.36
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
3%
34.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.14 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Gefle IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orebro SK come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 15D 20L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gefle IF sit at 1.15 PPG from 48 outings (13W 16D 19L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.15 for Gefle IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Orebro SK's home form reads 10W 10D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gefle IF have taken 0.75 points per game from 24 outings (3W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.29 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Gefle IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 13W 15D 20L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 13W 16D 19L in their last 48 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Gefle IF away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.67 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orebro SK won 4-1 on 17 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gefle IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
0
Draws
2
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, Gefle IF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Orebro SK 4-1 Gefle IF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 46%, Gefle IF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Orebro SK) and 54% (Gefle IF).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 38% of games; Gefle IF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Gefle IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 54% of Gefle IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Orebro SK's recent games and 54% of Gefle IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Gefle IF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orebro SK run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Gefle IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Gefle IF 4-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 2.00 xG and Gefle IF 1.14 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against Gefle IF attack 1.06 / defence 1.30, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 57% | Draw 22% | Gefle IF 21%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 58%, Gefle IF 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Gefle IF's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.12 PPG, Gefle IF 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Gefle IF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.