Orebro SK 4-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 43%, yet in-form Ostersunds FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 17 as Orebro SK welcome Ostersunds FK to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orebro SK have posted 4W 3D 3L at Behrn Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Orebro SK are significantly better at Behrn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ostersunds FK are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Orebro SK, 2 for Ostersunds FK and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 50% versus Ostersunds FK 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 56% | Ostersunds FK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.36 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.859 / defence 0.935 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.997 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.141. Data: 46 Orebro SK games / 46 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 43% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 29%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Ostersunds FK 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ostersunds FK (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 50% | Ostersunds FK 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Friday 2 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 43% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Orebro SK 1.36 / Ostersunds FK 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.859 / def 0.935 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.997 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Ostersunds FK xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 2 August 2024 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Orebro SK 4 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 43% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK?
Record (5 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 2 | Ostersunds FK 2W.
What form are Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.86x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.62
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.42
1.06
Ostersunds FK xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
7%
13.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.06 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orebro SK come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 15D 19L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 1.39 PPG from 46 outings (16W 16D 14L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.11 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Orebro SK's home form reads 9W 10D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (5W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.37 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 12W 15D 19L in their last 46 games (1.11 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 16W 16D 14L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.61 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ostersunds FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2024, when Orebro SK won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Orebro SK
2
Draws
5
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Orebro SK 0-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 44%, Ostersunds FK 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Orebro SK) and 39% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 30%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 39% of games; Ostersunds FK in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 48% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Orebro SK's recent games and 39% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Orebro SK run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Ostersunds FK 4-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.36 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.06 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.86 / defence 0.94 against Ostersunds FK attack 1.00 / defence 1.08, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 43% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 29%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 56%, Ostersunds FK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.11 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.