Oddevold 0-3 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oddevold host Trelleborg at Rimnersvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oddevold stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Oddevold at Rimnersvallen this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Trelleborg have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Trelleborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oddevold 1.40 PPG, Trelleborg 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Oddevold have won 1, Trelleborg 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Oddevold winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Oddevold trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Trelleborg trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 62% versus Trelleborg 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 62% | Trelleborg 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.29 xG and Trelleborg 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.835 / defence 1.220 | Trelleborg attack 0.864 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.177. Data: 29 Oddevold games / 59 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 37% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 35%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Trelleborg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oddevold are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Oddevold 70% | Trelleborg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 37% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Oddevold 1.29 / Trelleborg 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.835 / def 1.220 | Trelleborg attack 0.864 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Trelleborg xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Trelleborg kick off?
Oddevold vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Trelleborg?
Oddevold 0 - 3 Trelleborg.
Where is Oddevold vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Trelleborg part of?
Oddevold vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 37% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Oddevold and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Trelleborg?
Record (1 meetings): Oddevold 1W | Draws 0 | Trelleborg 0W.
What form are Oddevold and Trelleborg in?
Oddevold (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Oddevold vs Trelleborg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Oddevold's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.48
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.53
1.24
Trelleborg xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
10%
10.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.24 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oddevold's recent record stands at 8W 12D 9L from 29 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Trelleborg, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 12L across 29 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oddevold on 1.24 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Oddevold have managed 4W 7D 3L from 14 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trelleborg's away record stands at 4W 2D 8L across 14 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Oddevold are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.03 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 8W 12D 9L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 11W 6D 12L in their last 29 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Trelleborg away?
Oddevold's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.36 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Oddevold or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 15 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when Trelleborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oddevold's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Oddevold
1
Draws
1
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Trelleborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 2, Trelleborg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2025, when Oddevold 3-2 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Trelleborg?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 64%, Trelleborg 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Oddevold) and 43% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Oddevold have failed to score in 29% of games; Trelleborg in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Trelleborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Oddevold's recent matches and 36% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oddevold vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Oddevold's recent games and 43% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oddevold and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trelleborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Oddevold.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Oddevold 0-3 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.29 xG and Trelleborg 1.24 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Oddevold fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Trelleborg outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Trelleborg attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 37% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 35%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Trelleborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 62%, Trelleborg 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trelleborg's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.24 PPG, Trelleborg 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.