IK brage 1-3 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kalmar FF at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 26 as IK brage welcome Kalmar FF to Domnarvsvallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IK brage — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 3W 2D 5L at Domnarvsvallen — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's away record: 2W 8D 0L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kalmar FF — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for IK brage, 0 for Kalmar FF and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 51% versus Kalmar FF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 47% | Kalmar FF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.06 xG and Kalmar FF 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.042 / defence 1.392 | Kalmar FF attack 0.716 / defence 0.662. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.185. Kalmar FF's defence strength of 0.662 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 IK brage games / 25 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 32% | Draw 30% | Kalmar FF 38%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Kalmar FF 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: IK brage 80% | Kalmar FF 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 32% | Draw 30% | Kalmar FF 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG IK brage 1.06 / Kalmar FF 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.042 / def 1.392 | Kalmar FF attack 0.716 / def 0.662 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Kalmar FF xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Kalmar FF kick off?
IK brage vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Kalmar FF?
IK brage 1 - 3 Kalmar FF.
Where is IK brage vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Kalmar FF part of?
IK brage vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 32% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both IK brage and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Kalmar FF?
Record (1 meetings): IK brage 0W | Draws 1 | Kalmar FF 0W.
What form are IK brage and Kalmar FF in?
IK brage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IK brage's attack rating (1.04) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
32%
3.13
30%
3.33
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.24
1.18
Kalmar FF xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
13%
7.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are IK brage and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for IK brage and 1.18 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, IK brage have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 19W 16D 20L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF's form line: 22W 16D 17L from 55 games, 1.49 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.33 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IK brage have posted 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (10W 6D 11L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 7W 13D 7L from 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.44 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 19W 16D 20L in their last 55 games (1.33 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 22W 16D 17L in their last 55 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Kalmar FF away?
IK brage's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.33 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.26 PPG.
Have IK brage or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
IK brage
1
Draws
1
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Kalmar FF?
From 2 meetings on record, IK brage have won 0, Kalmar FF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when IK brage 1-3 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 52%, Kalmar FF 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (IK brage) and 52% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: IK brage have failed to score in 26% of games; Kalmar FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of IK brage's games and 63% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of IK brage's recent games and 52% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kalmar FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat IK brage 1-3 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.06 xG and Kalmar FF 1.18 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kalmar FF outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.04 / defence 1.39 against Kalmar FF attack 0.72 / defence 0.66, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 32% | Draw 30% | Kalmar FF 38%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 47%, Kalmar FF 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.33 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.