Vasteras SK FK 1-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Hitachi Energy Arena to take on Vasteras SK FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK at Hitachi Energy Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hitachi Energy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Vasteras SK FK are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, Mjallby AIF 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Mjallby AIF trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 47% versus Mjallby AIF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 60% | Mjallby AIF 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.47 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.905 / defence 0.869 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.951 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.296. Data: 23 Vasteras SK FK games / 53 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 46% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 28%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Mjallby AIF 3.57. Vasteras SK FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 30% | Mjallby AIF 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 46% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.47 / Mjallby AIF 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.905 / def 0.869 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.951 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Mjallby AIF xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Vasteras SK FK 1 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 46% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF?
Record (3 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 1W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.83
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.54
1.07
Mjallby AIF xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
6%
15.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.07 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasteras SK FK's recent record stands at 30W 10D 13L from 53 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 11L across 53 games — 1.85 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.89 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vasteras SK FK have managed 15W 8D 3L from 26 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 14W 8D 4L across 26 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.60 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 30W 10D 13L in their last 53 games (1.89 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 28W 14D 11L in their last 53 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 2.04 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
1
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF?
From 4 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 1-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 42%, Mjallby AIF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vasteras SK FK) and 58% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 62% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 58% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasteras SK FK edge out Mjallby AIF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Mjallby AIF 1-0 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.47 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.07 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.91 / defence 0.87 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.95 / defence 1.10, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 46% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 28%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 60%, Mjallby AIF 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.89 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.