Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.

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Match Analysis

Orgryte IS host Vasteras SK FK at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Orgryte IS's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Vasteras SK FK's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Form points away from home here. Vasteras SK FK's 1.90 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Orgryte IS's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Orgryte IS, 2 for Vasteras SK FK and 6 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2026, ended 0–2 with Vasteras SK FK winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 54% versus Vasteras SK FK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 58% | Vasteras SK FK 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.75 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.165 / defence 1.321 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.090 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.309. Data: 27 Orgryte IS games / 27 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 36% | Draw 22% | Vasteras SK FK 42%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.78 | Draw 4.55 | Vasteras SK FK 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 90% | Vasteras SK FK 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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