Mjallby AIF 1-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Malmo FF at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 30 June 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 6W 3D 1L at Strandvallen — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Malmo FF's away record: 2W 7D 1L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mjallby AIF 1.70 PPG, Malmo FF 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Mjallby AIF have won 4, Malmo FF 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Malmo FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 50% versus Malmo FF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 48% | Malmo FF 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.53 xG and Malmo FF 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.208 / defence 0.671 | Malmo FF attack 0.987 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.313. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.671 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Mjallby AIF games / 43 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 53% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 21%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Malmo FF 4.76. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Mjallby AIF 90% | Malmo FF 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 30 Jun 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 53% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.53 / Malmo FF 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.208 / def 0.671 | Malmo FF attack 0.987 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Malmo FF xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 30 June 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 53% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
Record (7 meetings): Mjallby AIF 4W | Draws 1 | Malmo FF 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (1.21) and Malmo FF's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.88
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.40
0.87
Malmo FF xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
5%
21.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.87 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 60 games, going 26W 13D 21L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 2.15 PPG from 60 outings (39W 12D 9L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 13W 8D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.77 points per game from 30 outings (15W 8D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.15 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 26W 13D 21L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 39W 12D 9L in their last 60 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.57 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mjallby AIF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 6, Malmo FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, Malmo FF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mjallby AIF) and 60% (Malmo FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mjallby AIF's games and 50% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 60% of Malmo FF's.
Do Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 13, as Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.53 xG and Malmo FF 0.87 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.21 / defence 0.67 against Malmo FF attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 53% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 21%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 48%, Malmo FF 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.