Kalmar FF 0-4 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 9 July 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Guldfågeln Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IF Elfsborg (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 9W 1D 0L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, IF Elfsborg are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kalmar FF lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Kalmar FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 49% versus IF Elfsborg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 40% | IF Elfsborg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.37 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 1.024 / defence 1.016 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.212 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.189. IF Elfsborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.212 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Kalmar FF games / 43 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 38%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | IF Elfsborg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 60% | IF Elfsborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jul 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Kalmar FF 1.37 / IF Elfsborg 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 1.024 / def 1.016 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.212 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.47
IF Elfsborg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 9 July 2023 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Kalmar FF 0 - 4 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 33% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (5 meetings): Kalmar FF 2W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 2W.
What form are Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.21x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
33%
3.01
29%
3.44
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.83
1.47
IF Elfsborg xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
8%
13.01
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.47 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 21W 10D 12L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 23W 12D 8L from 43 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.88 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kalmar FF have posted 2.14 PPG from 21 outings (14W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Kalmar FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 10W 6D 5L from 21 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.98 scored and 1.05 conceded. IF Elfsborg's attacking output running into Kalmar FF's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 21W 10D 12L in their last 43 games (1.70 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 23W 12D 8L in their last 43 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Kalmar FF's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 2.14 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 9 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Kalmar FF
1
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 5, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 38%, IF Elfsborg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Kalmar FF) and 48% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 52% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 48% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Kalmar FF 0-4 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.37 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.47 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Kalmar FF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.21 / defence 0.90, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 38%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 40%, IF Elfsborg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.70 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.