IF Elfsborg 1-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours IF Elfsborg (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IF Elfsborg face IFK Goteborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
IF Elfsborg (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.30 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Borås Arena this season.
IFK Goteborg have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 2.00 in IF Elfsborg's favour (2.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 3 previous meetings, IF Elfsborg are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with IF Elfsborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both IF Elfsborg and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 52% versus IFK Goteborg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 54% | IFK Goteborg 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.09 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.398 / defence 0.676 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.677 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.290. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.398 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IF Elfsborg's defence rating of 0.676 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 IF Elfsborg games / 44 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 71% | Draw 21% | IFK Goteborg 8%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.41 | Draw 4.76 | IFK Goteborg 12.50. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (71%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 40% | IFK Goteborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 71% | Draw 21% | IFK Goteborg 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 41% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.09 / IFK Goteborg 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.398 / def 0.676 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.677 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.59
IFK Goteborg xG
41%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg part of?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 71% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 8% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
Record (3 meetings): IF Elfsborg 3W | Draws 0 | IFK Goteborg 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.40x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.68x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 3-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
71%
1.41
21%
4.72
8%
12.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.68
0.59
IFK Goteborg xG
1.41
71%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
12.80
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
55%
1.80
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
39%
2.54
1%
103.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.0 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.59 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 24W 12D 8L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 15W 8D 21L from 44 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Goteborg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 2.05 PPG from 22 outings (13W 6D 3L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 7W 3D 12L from 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.23 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 24W 12D 8L in their last 44 games (1.91 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 15W 8D 21L in their last 44 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.05 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.09 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
IF Elfsborg go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 8, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 54%, IFK Goteborg 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (IF Elfsborg) and 50% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 36% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 50% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg finished level at 1-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.09 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.59 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.40 / defence 0.68 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.68 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 71% | Draw 21% | IFK Goteborg 8%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 54%, IFK Goteborg 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.