Djurgardens IF 5-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF meet at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 July 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's home record at 3Arena: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Degerfors IF (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Degerfors IF have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Djurgardens IF's favour (1.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Djurgardens IF, 3 for Degerfors IF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 4–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 44% versus Degerfors IF 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 40% | Degerfors IF 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.31 xG and Degerfors IF 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.820 / defence 0.910 | Degerfors IF attack 1.113 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.249. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Djurgardens IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Djurgardens IF games / 13 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 37% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 35%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Degerfors IF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 70% | Degerfors IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Jul 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 37% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.31 / Degerfors IF 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.820 / def 0.910 | Degerfors IF attack 1.113 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Degerfors IF xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 6 July 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Djurgardens IF 5 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 37% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF?
Record (6 meetings): Djurgardens IF 3W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 3W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (0.82) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (1.11x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.63
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.58
1.26
Degerfors IF xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.26 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 43 games, going 20W 9D 14L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.58 PPG from 43 outings (19W 11D 13L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.58 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 9W 7D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 1.62 points per game from 21 outings (9W 7D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.56 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 20W 9D 14L in their last 43 games (1.60 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 19W 11D 13L in their last 43 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.62 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 5-1 on 6 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 5, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 48%, Degerfors IF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Djurgardens IF) and 48% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 62% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 48% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Degerfors IF 5-1 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.31 xG and Degerfors IF 1.26 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.82 / defence 0.91 against Degerfors IF attack 1.11 / defence 1.22, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 37% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 35%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 40%, Degerfors IF 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.60 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.