Djurgardens IF 1-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AIK Stockholm (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Djurgardens IF face AIK Stockholm.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host AIK Stockholm at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 5W 3D 2L at 3Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. AIK Stockholm's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Djurgardens IF's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
AIK Stockholm have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Djurgardens IF's 1 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with AIK Stockholm winning.
It is worth noting that AIK Stockholm have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 47% versus AIK Stockholm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 47% | AIK Stockholm 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 0.81 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.740 / defence 0.772 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.020 / defence 0.745. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.250. Djurgardens IF's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AIK Stockholm's defence strength of 0.745 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Djurgardens IF's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Djurgardens IF games / 36 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 29% | Draw 33% | AIK Stockholm 38%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | AIK Stockholm 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Djurgardens IF's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 60% | AIK Stockholm 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 29% | Draw 33% | AIK Stockholm 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Djurgardens IF 0.81 / AIK Stockholm 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.740 / def 0.772 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.020 / def 0.745 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.98
AIK Stockholm xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 29% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (6 meetings): Djurgardens IF 1W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 5W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
29%
3.50
33%
3.01
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
1.79
0.98
AIK Stockholm xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 16.4 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.98 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 31W 10D 19L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 26W 12D 22L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.72 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 2.00 PPG from 30 outings (18W 6D 6L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 10W 5D 15L from 30 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.33 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 10D 19L in their last 60 games (1.72 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 26W 12D 22L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.00 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
6
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-3 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 43%, AIK Stockholm 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Djurgardens IF) and 50% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 53% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 50% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm finished level at 1-1 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 0.81 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.98 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.74 / defence 0.77 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.02 / defence 0.74, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 29% | Draw 33% | AIK Stockholm 38%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 47%, AIK Stockholm 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.72 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.