BK Hacken 0-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as BK Hacken face Mjallby AIF.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
BK Hacken welcome Mjallby AIF to Bravida Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 1). Kick-off is Sunday 31 March 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, BK Hacken have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, BK Hacken have posted 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — BK Hacken are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mjallby AIF stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Mjallby AIF away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — BK Hacken at 1.30 PPG versus Mjallby AIF's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for BK Hacken, 1 for Mjallby AIF and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended BK Hacken 1–2 Mjallby AIF — a Mjallby AIF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 73% versus Mjallby AIF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 68% | Mjallby AIF 38%). Note also that Mjallby AIF surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while BK Hacken recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.71 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.229 / defence 0.953 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.973 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.534. Data: built from BK Hacken's last 30 games and Mjallby AIF's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 44% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 32%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.25 | Draw 4.26 | Mjallby AIF 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.71 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (BK Hacken's last 10 home games and Mjallby AIF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: BK Hacken 70% (last 10 home games) | Mjallby AIF 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (BK Hacken 30 games, Mjallby AIF 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 1 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 44% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG BK Hacken 1.71 / Mjallby AIF 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.229 / def 0.953 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.973 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Mjallby AIF xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF FAQs
What time does BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
BK Hacken 0 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF part of?
BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 1) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 44% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.23) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from BK Hacken's last 30 games and Mjallby AIF's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
44%
2.25
23%
4.26
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.13
1.42
Mjallby AIF xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.35
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.42 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BK Hacken come into this having played 60 games, going 36W 13D 11L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (23W 15D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
BK Hacken carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
BK Hacken's home form reads 23W 4D 3L across their last 30 home games, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.02 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.60 points per game from their last 30 away games (14W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.08 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
BK Hacken (Home) vs Mjallby AIF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BK Hacken
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF Form FAQs
What form are BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 36W 13D 11L in their last 60 games (2.02 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Mjallby AIF away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.43 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Jun 2023, when BK Hacken won BK Hacken 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BK Hacken
1
Draws
5
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, BK Hacken have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: BK Hacken 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 80%, Mjallby AIF 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (BK Hacken) and 27% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 43%; Mjallby AIF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 27% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of BK Hacken's recent games and 27% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 57% of Mjallby AIF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat BK Hacken 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat BK Hacken 0-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.71 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.42 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. BK Hacken fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.23 / defence 0.95 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 44% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 32%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 68%, Mjallby AIF 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Mjallby AIF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.