AIK Stockholm 1-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strawberry Arena plays host to AIK Stockholm versus Vasteras SK FK in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AIK Stockholm have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
AIK Stockholm's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Strawberry Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strawberry Arena.
Vasteras SK FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for AIK Stockholm, 2.00 for Vasteras SK FK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
AIK Stockholm half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Vasteras SK FK half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 50% versus Vasteras SK FK 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 47% | Vasteras SK FK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.74 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.035 / defence 0.888 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.563. Data: 30 AIK Stockholm games / 0 Vasteras SK FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 51% | Draw 24% | Vasteras SK FK 26%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Vasteras SK FK 3.85. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 50% | Vasteras SK FK 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 51% | Draw 24% | Vasteras SK FK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.74 / Vasteras SK FK 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.035 / def 0.888 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.563 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Vasteras SK FK xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 15:30 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 51% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Vasteras SK FK in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (0.85x) against AIK Stockholm's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
51%
1.98
24%
4.24
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.92
1.18
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
5%
22.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.18 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 10L across 30 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for AIK Stockholm against 1.33 for Vasteras SK FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 6W 6D 3L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — AIK Stockholm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.67 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 10W 10D 10L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.60 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.07 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
AIK Stockholm
1
Draws
0
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Vasteras SK FK?
From 3 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 1-1 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Vasteras SK FK?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 47%, Vasteras SK FK 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (AIK Stockholm) and 47% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 60% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 47% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Vasteras SK FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.74 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.18 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vasteras SK FK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.03 / defence 0.89 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 51% | Draw 24% | Vasteras SK FK 26%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 47%, Vasteras SK FK 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.20 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.