Valladolid 1-0 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Real Betis at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valladolid vs Real Betis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Valladolid welcome Real Betis to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 January 2025 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Valladolid have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valladolid's home record at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla: 2W 3D 4L from 9 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Real Betis — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Betis away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Real Betis are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Valladolid, 1 for Real Betis and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with Real Betis winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Valladolid trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Real Betis trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 44% versus Real Betis 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 61% | Real Betis 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.00 xG and Real Betis 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.682 / defence 1.258 | Real Betis attack 0.949 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.184. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Valladolid games / 56 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 27% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 46%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Real Betis 2.17. Real Betis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Real Betis as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Valladolid 44% | Real Betis 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 27% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Valladolid 1.00 / Real Betis 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.682 / def 1.258 | Real Betis attack 0.949 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Real Betis xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Real Betis kick off?
Valladolid vs Real Betis kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Real Betis?
Valladolid 1 - 0 Real Betis.
Where is Valladolid vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Real Betis part of?
Valladolid vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 27% chance of winning, Real Betis a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Valladolid and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Real Betis?
Record (2 meetings): Valladolid 0W | Draws 1 | Real Betis 1W.
What form are Valladolid and Real Betis in?
Valladolid (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Real Betis (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.68) and Real Betis's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Valladolid's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
27%
3.74
27%
3.73
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
8.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.42
1.41
Real Betis xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
7%
15.38
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.41 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valladolid come into this having played 18 games, going 3W 3D 12L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Betis sit at 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (6W 7D 5L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Betis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Valladolid — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Valladolid's home form reads 2W 3D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Real Betis have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Valladolid are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.17 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Betis in 61%.
Last 18 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 3W 3D 12L in their last 18 games (0.67 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 6W 7D 5L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Real Betis away?
Valladolid's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.00 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2025, when Real Betis won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valladolid's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Valladolid
1
Draws
2
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Real Betis?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 1, Real Betis have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2025, when Real Betis 5-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Real Betis see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valladolid 44%, Real Betis 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Valladolid) and 33% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Valladolid have failed to score in 33% of games; Real Betis in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Real Betis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Valladolid's recent matches and 56% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Valladolid's recent games and 33% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Valladolid defy the odds to beat Real Betis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valladolid beat Real Betis 1-0 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.00 xG and Real Betis 1.41 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Real Betis landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.68 / defence 1.26 against Real Betis attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 27% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 46%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Valladolid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 61%, Real Betis 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Real Betis's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Valladolid winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Real Betis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.