Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Osasuna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Rayo Vallecano travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 January 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estadio El Sadar this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.20 (Rayo Vallecano). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Osasuna, 3 for Rayo Vallecano and 0 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Rayo Vallecano trading profile (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 53% versus Rayo Vallecano 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 46% | Rayo Vallecano 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.16 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.058 / defence 1.124 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.782 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.171. Rayo Vallecano's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Osasuna games / 57 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 39% | Draw 29% | Rayo Vallecano 32%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Rayo Vallecano 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Osasuna 80% | Rayo Vallecano 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 39% | Draw 29% | Rayo Vallecano 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Osasuna 1.16 / Rayo Vallecano 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.058 / def 1.124 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.782 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Rayo Vallecano xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Osasuna 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 39% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (7 meetings): Osasuna 4W | Draws 0 | Rayo Vallecano 3W.
What form are Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (1.06) and Rayo Vallecano's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayo Vallecano's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
39%
2.58
29%
3.43
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.19
1.03
Rayo Vallecano xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.03 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 18W 16D 23L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayo Vallecano's form line: 14W 21D 22L from 57 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.23 PPG, Rayo Vallecano on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.41 PPG from 29 outings (11W 8D 10L).
On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 7W 10D 12L from 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 0.89 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 57 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 18W 16D 23L in their last 57 games (1.23 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 14W 21D 22L in their last 57 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Osasuna's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.41 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Osasuna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Rayo Vallecano specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Osasuna
1
Draws
3
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 6, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Rayo Vallecano see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 55%, Rayo Vallecano 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Osasuna) and 34% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano in 41%; Rayo Vallecano in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Osasuna's recent matches and 28% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Osasuna's recent games and 34% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 45% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano finished level at 1-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.16 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.03 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.06 / defence 1.12 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.78 / defence 0.79, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 39% | Draw 29% | Rayo Vallecano 32%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 46%, Rayo Vallecano 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.23 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.