Girona 1-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mallorca at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Girona host Mallorca at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 5 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Girona have posted 3W 2D 5L at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mallorca's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mallorca — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Girona have won 2, Mallorca 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Mallorca winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Mallorca trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 49% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 56% versus Mallorca 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 61% | Mallorca 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.15 xG and Mallorca 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.968 / defence 1.193 | Mallorca attack 0.811 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.200. Data: 71 Girona games / 71 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 36% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 36%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Mallorca 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Girona 70% | Mallorca 30%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 36% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Girona 1.15 / Mallorca 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.968 / def 1.193 | Mallorca attack 0.811 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Mallorca xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Mallorca kick off?
Girona vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 5 May 2025 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Mallorca?
Girona 1 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Girona vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Mallorca part of?
Girona vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 36% chance of winning, Mallorca a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Girona and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Mallorca?
Record (5 meetings): Girona 2W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 2W.
What form are Girona and Mallorca in?
Girona (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Girona's attack rating (0.97) and Mallorca's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
36%
2.80
28%
3.54
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Girona xG
Total xG
2.31
1.16
Mallorca xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Girona and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Girona and 1.16 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Girona come into this having played 71 games, going 34W 14D 23L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Mallorca sit at 1.18 PPG from 71 outings (20W 24D 27L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Girona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Mallorca — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Girona's home form reads 21W 5D 9L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Mallorca have taken 0.97 points per game from 35 outings (8W 10D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.90 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 71 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 34W 14D 23L in their last 71 games (1.63 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 20W 24D 27L in their last 71 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Mallorca away?
Girona's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.94 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Girona's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Girona
1
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Mallorca?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 4, Mallorca have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Girona 0-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Mallorca?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 54%, Mallorca 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Girona) and 31% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Mallorca in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Girona's recent matches and 46% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Girona's recent games and 31% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Mallorca tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 49% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Girona defy the odds to beat Mallorca 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Mallorca 1-0 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.15 xG and Mallorca 1.16 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.97 / defence 1.19 against Mallorca attack 0.81 / defence 0.88, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 36% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 36%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 61%, Mallorca 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Mallorca's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Girona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.