Getafe 0-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Getafe vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Girona travel to Estadio Coliseum to take on Getafe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Getafe have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's home record at Estadio Coliseum: 1W 6D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Girona have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Girona are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Getafe, 2 for Girona and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Getafe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Getafe in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Girona in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 46% versus Girona 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Getafe 34% | Girona 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.09 xG and Girona 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.777 / defence 0.904 | Girona attack 0.860 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.079. Getafe's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Getafe games / 50 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 40% | Draw 33% | Girona 27%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Girona 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Girona (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Getafe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Getafe 50% | Girona 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Coliseum • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 40% | Draw 33% | Girona 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Getafe 1.09 / Girona 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.777 / def 0.904 | Girona attack 0.860 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Getafe (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Girona xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Girona kick off?
Getafe vs Girona kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Estadio Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Girona?
Getafe 0 - 1 Girona.
Where is Getafe vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Girona part of?
Getafe vs Girona is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 40% chance of winning, Girona a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Getafe and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Girona?
Record (4 meetings): Getafe 2W | Draws 0 | Girona 2W.
What form are Getafe and Girona in?
Getafe (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Girona (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Getafe vs Girona?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Getafe's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Getafe's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
40%
2.49
33%
3.05
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Getafe xG
Total xG
1.93
0.84
Girona xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
9%
11.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Getafe and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Getafe and 0.84 for Girona, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Getafe's recent record stands at 11W 20D 19L from 50 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 29W 9D 12L across 50 games — 1.92 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Getafe heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Getafe have managed 9W 10D 6L from 25 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Getafe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Girona's away record stands at 11W 6D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Getafe are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 2.00 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 50 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Girona in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 11W 20D 19L in their last 50 games (1.06 PPG), while Girona have gone 29W 9D 12L in their last 50 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Girona away?
Girona's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.48 PPG; Girona away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Getafe or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Girona in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Getafe and Girona runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2023, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Getafe's record when hosting Girona specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Getafe
1
Draws
3
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Getafe have won 4, Girona have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Girona 1-1 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Girona?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 40%, Girona 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Getafe) and 48% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 36% of games; Girona in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Girona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Getafe's recent matches and 56% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Getafe's recent games and 48% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Girona tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Girona in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Girona defy the odds to beat Getafe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Getafe 0-1 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.09 xG and Girona 0.84 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Getafe fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.78 / defence 0.90 against Girona attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 40% | Draw 33% | Girona 27%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Girona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 34%, Girona 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Girona's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.