Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 65% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 June 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ulsan Hyundai FC at 1.50 PPG versus Jeonbuk Motors's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 0 for Jeonbuk Motors and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Jeonbuk Motors 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.29 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.602 / defence 0.949 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.941 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.183. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.602 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 48 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 65% | Draw 19% | Jeonbuk Motors 16%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Jeonbuk Motors 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.6 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 65% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jun 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 65% | Draw 19% | Jeonbuk Motors 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 59% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.29 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.602 / def 0.949 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.941 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Jeonbuk Motors xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 0 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 65% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (3 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W | Draws 1 | Jeonbuk Motors 0W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.60x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
65%
1.54
19%
5.33
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.35
1.06
Jeonbuk Motors xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
10%
9.91
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
2%
61.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.06 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 45W 17D 14L from 76 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Jeonbuk Motors, meanwhile, have gone 37W 19D 20L across 76 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 2.00 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 25W 8D 5L from 38 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record stands at 19W 7D 12L across 38 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.33 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 45W 17D 14L in their last 76 games (2.00 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 37W 19D 20L in their last 76 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.18 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1
Draws
5
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 63%, Jeonbuk Motors 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 45% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 45% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 45% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Jeonbuk Motors 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.29 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.06 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Jeonbuk Motors landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.60 / defence 0.95 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 65% | Draw 19% | Jeonbuk Motors 16%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%, Jeonbuk Motors 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.00 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.