Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC meet at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 April 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gwangju FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Gwangju FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Ulsan Hyundai FC. A 0.90 PPG lead over Gwangju FC (1.70 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% versus Gwangju FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% | Gwangju FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.22 xG and Gwangju FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.294 / defence 0.962 | Gwangju FC attack 0.967 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.265. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — their λ of 2.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Gwangju FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 9 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 61% | Draw 20% | Gwangju FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Gwangju FC 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Gwangju FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 61% | Draw 20% | Gwangju FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.22 / Gwangju FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.294 / def 0.962 | Gwangju FC attack 0.967 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Gwangju FC xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 61% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Gwangju FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.22. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.97x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 42/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
61%
1.64
20%
5.06
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.40
1.18
Gwangju FC xG
1.64
61%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
11%
9.22
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
2%
47.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.18 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 22W 10D 6L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Gwangju FC's form line: 10W 8D 20L from 38 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. Gwangju FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gwangju FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.11 PPG from 19 outings (12W 4D 3L).
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 5W 2D 12L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 22W 10D 6L in their last 38 games (2.00 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 10W 8D 20L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.11 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 5-1 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
4
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Gwangju FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 63%, Gwangju FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 53% (Gwangju FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gwangju FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Gwangju FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 53% of Gwangju FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 53% of Gwangju FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Gwangju FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gwangju FC 2-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.22 xG and Gwangju FC 1.18 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.96 against Gwangju FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.32, drawn from 42/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 61% | Draw 20% | Gwangju FC 19%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%, Gwangju FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.