Suwon City FC 1-4 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Suwon City FC at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Suwon City FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Suwon Sports Complex this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Suwon City FC register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Suwon City FC lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suwon City FC 62% and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 60% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.33 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.955 / defence 1.092 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.871 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.004. Data: 36 Suwon City FC games / 3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Suwon City FC 90% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Suwon City FC 1.33 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.955 / def 1.092 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.871 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Suwon City FC 1 - 4 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 44% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (3 meetings): Suwon City FC 2W | Draws 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 0.95x the league average against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (0.87x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
The sample (36/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.34
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.28
0.95
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
7%
14.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 0.95 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Suwon City FC come into this having played 40 games, going 9W 9D 22L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC sit at 0.95 PPG from 40 outings (8W 14D 18L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Suwon City FC against 0.95 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Suwon City FC's home form reads 5W 5D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (3W 9D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 60%.
Last 40 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 9W 9D 22L in their last 40 games (0.90 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1-4 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Suwon City FC
2
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 Suwon City FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Suwon City FC, 65% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Suwon City FC) and 50% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Suwon City FC's games and 65% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Suwon City FC's matches and 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gimcheon Sangmu FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Suwon City FC 1-4 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.33 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 0.95 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 26%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 60%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 0.90 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.