Suwon City FC 3-4 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suwon Sports Complex plays host to Suwon City FC versus Pohang Steelers in K League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Tuesday 18 May 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.12 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.063 / defence 1.387 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.933 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 0.949 / away 1.073. Data: 16 Suwon City FC games / 15 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 28% | Draw 32% | Pohang Steelers 41%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Pohang Steelers 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 May 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 28% | Draw 32% | Pohang Steelers 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Suwon City FC 1.12 / Pohang Steelers 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.063 / def 1.387 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.933 / def 1.112 | league avg home 0.949 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Pohang Steelers xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 18 May 2021 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Suwon City FC 3 - 4 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 28% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.06) and Pohang Steelers's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pohang Steelers's attack (0.93x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
28%
3.59
32%
3.17
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.51
1.39
Pohang Steelers xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
7%
14.37
13%
7.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.39 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
Pohang Steelers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 22 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 1-5 on 22 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Pohang Steelers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
4
Draws
4
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, Pohang Steelers have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2025, when Pohang Steelers 1-5 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Pohang Steelers edge out Suwon City FC 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Suwon City FC 3-4 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.12 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.39 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pohang Steelers outscored their 1.39 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.39 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 28% | Draw 32% | Pohang Steelers 41%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.