Suwon City FC 0-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suwon Sports Complex plays host to Suwon City FC versus Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Wednesday 10 August 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 4W 2D 4L at Suwon Sports Complex — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Suwon Sports Complex this season.
Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record: 9W 0D 1L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (2.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.70 exceeds their overall 2.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Suwon City FC half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Jeonbuk Motors 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 60% | Jeonbuk Motors 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.43 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.487 / defence 1.483 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.103 / defence 0.725. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.270. Suwon City FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.487 — their λ of 1.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.725 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Suwon City FC games / 58 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 26% | Draw 23% | Jeonbuk Motors 52%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Jeonbuk Motors 1.92. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 80% | Jeonbuk Motors 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Aug 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 26% | Draw 23% | Jeonbuk Motors 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Suwon City FC 1.43 / Jeonbuk Motors 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.487 / def 1.483 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.103 / def 0.725 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Jeonbuk Motors xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 10 August 2022 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Suwon City FC 0 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 26% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.49) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (1.10x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 2.08.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
26%
3.92
23%
4.43
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.50
2.08
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.92
26%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
13%
7.99
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
3%
31.30
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 2.08 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 23W 15D 25L from 63 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeonbuk Motors, meanwhile, have gone 35W 17D 11L across 63 games — 1.94 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 15W 4D 12L from 31 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record stands at 18W 8D 5L across 31 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.63 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 23W 15D 25L in their last 63 games (1.33 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 35W 17D 11L in their last 63 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-6 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
7
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 74%, Jeonbuk Motors 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 77% (Suwon City FC) and 42% (Jeonbuk Motors). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Suwon City FC's games and 48% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Suwon City FC's matches and 42% of Jeonbuk Motors's.
Do Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Suwon City FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Suwon City FC 0-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.43 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 2.08 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Jeonbuk Motors landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.49 / defence 1.48 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.10 / defence 0.72, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 26% | Draw 23% | Jeonbuk Motors 52%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 60%, Jeonbuk Motors 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.