Seongnam FC 0-4 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Gangwon FC (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Seongnam FC face Gangwon FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Seongnam FC host Gangwon FC at Tancheon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Seongnam FC have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tancheon Sports Complex, Seongnam FC have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gangwon FC have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Gangwon FC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Gangwon FC, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Seongnam FC.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2022, ended 0–2 with Gangwon FC winning.
It is worth noting that Gangwon FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Seongnam FC in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 47% versus Gangwon FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seongnam FC 47% | Gangwon FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.67 xG and Gangwon FC 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 1.061 / defence 1.287 | Gangwon FC attack 1.191 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.237. Data: 63 Seongnam FC games / 63 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 34% | Draw 22% | Gangwon FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 2.94 | Draw 4.55 | Gangwon FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Seongnam FC 70% | Gangwon FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 34% | Draw 22% | Gangwon FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Seongnam FC 1.67 / Gangwon FC 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 1.061 / def 1.287 | Gangwon FC attack 1.191 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Gangwon FC xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC?
Seongnam FC 0 - 4 Gangwon FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 34% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 44% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (6 meetings): Seongnam FC 1W | Draws 1 | Gangwon FC 4W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Gangwon FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Seongnam FC's attack rating (1.06) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Seongnam FC's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
34%
2.91
22%
4.56
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
3.56
1.90
Gangwon FC xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
15%
6.66
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
5%
19.35
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.90 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Seongnam FC's recent record stands at 17W 17D 34L from 68 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Gangwon FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 19D 27L across 68 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Seongnam FC on 1.00 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Seongnam FC have managed 11W 9D 14L from 34 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gangwon FC's away record stands at 7W 9D 18L across 34 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 68 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 17W 17D 34L in their last 68 games (1.00 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 22W 19D 27L in their last 68 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Seongnam FC's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.24 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gangwon FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2022, when Gangwon FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Seongnam FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
5
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 1, Gangwon FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 0-4 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 47%, Gangwon FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Seongnam FC) and 53% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Seongnam FC have failed to score in 32% of games; Gangwon FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Seongnam FC's recent matches and 59% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 53% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Gangwon FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Seongnam FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Seongnam FC 0-4 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 31, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.67 xG and Gangwon FC 1.90 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Seongnam FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Gangwon FC outscored their 1.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.29 against Gangwon FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.13, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 34% | Draw 22% | Gangwon FC 44%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 47%, Gangwon FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Seongnam FC 1.00 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.