Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Incheon United at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Gimcheon Sangmu FC welcome Incheon United to Gimcheon Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 1W 2D 7L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Incheon United — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Incheon United's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Incheon United's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gimcheon Sangmu FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Incheon United in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 2 for Incheon United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Incheon United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Incheon United trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56% versus Incheon United 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Incheon United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.20 xG and Incheon United 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.843 / defence 1.113 | Incheon United attack 1.074 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.279. Data: 32 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 65 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30% | Draw 25% | Incheon United 45%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Incheon United 2.22. Incheon United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% | Incheon United 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30% | Draw 25% | Incheon United 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.20 / Incheon United 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.843 / def 1.113 | Incheon United attack 1.074 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Incheon United xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 0 Incheon United.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 30% chance of winning, Incheon United a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
Record (2 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W | Draws 0 | Incheon United 2W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Incheon United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack at 0.84x the league average against Incheon United's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Incheon United's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
30%
3.36
25%
3.96
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.72
1.53
Incheon United xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
6%
15.49
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.53 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gimcheon Sangmu FC come into this having played 32 games, going 7W 10D 15L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Incheon United sit at 1.53 PPG from 32 outings (12W 13D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five.
Incheon United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home form reads 4W 4D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Incheon United have taken 1.56 points per game from 16 outings (6W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Incheon United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.28 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 32 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 7W 10D 15L in their last 32 games (0.97 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 12W 13D 7L in their last 32 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Incheon United away?
Incheon United's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Incheon United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Incheon United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2026, when Incheon United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Incheon United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
4
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
From 8 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Incheon United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56%, Incheon United 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 50% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Incheon United in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Incheon United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's games and 62% of Incheon United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 50% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gimcheon Sangmu FC defy the odds to beat Incheon United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Incheon United 1-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.20 xG and Incheon United 1.53 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Incheon United landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Incheon United attack 1.07 / defence 1.04, drawn from 32/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30% | Draw 25% | Incheon United 45%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Incheon United 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Incheon United's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Incheon United arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.