Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-3 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Incheon United at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Gimcheon Sangmu FC welcome Incheon United to Gimcheon Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 5W 0D 5L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Incheon United — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Incheon United haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Incheon United's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) versus 1.10 (Incheon United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 3 for Incheon United and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Incheon United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Incheon United trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53% versus Incheon United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53% | Incheon United 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.10 xG and Incheon United 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.936 / defence 1.143 | Incheon United attack 0.911 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.310. Data: 45 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 12 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 29% | Draw 30% | Incheon United 41%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Incheon United 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Incheon United 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 29% | Draw 30% | Incheon United 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.10 / Incheon United 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.936 / def 1.143 | Incheon United attack 0.911 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.048 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Incheon United xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0 - 3 Incheon United.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 29% chance of winning, Incheon United a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
Record (7 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W | Draws 2 | Incheon United 3W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Incheon United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack at 0.94x the league average against Incheon United's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Incheon United's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
29%
3.49
30%
3.33
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.46
1.36
Incheon United xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
7%
13.66
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.36 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gimcheon Sangmu FC come into this having played 38 games, going 18W 7D 13L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Incheon United sit at 1.03 PPG from 38 outings (9W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. Incheon United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Incheon United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home form reads 10W 2D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Incheon United have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Incheon United
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 18W 7D 13L in their last 38 games (1.61 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 9W 12D 17L in their last 38 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Incheon United away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.68 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Incheon United in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2026, when Incheon United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Incheon United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
4
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
From 9 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Incheon United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Incheon United 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37%, Incheon United 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 47% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Incheon United in 37%; Gimcheon Sangmu FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Incheon United in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Incheon United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 47% of Incheon United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 47% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Incheon United run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-3 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.10 xG and Incheon United 1.36 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Incheon United outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.14 against Incheon United attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 29% | Draw 30% | Incheon United 41%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53%, Incheon United 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Incheon United's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Incheon United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.