Jeju United FC 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Jeju United FC welcome Gimcheon Sangmu FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Jeju United FC) versus 1.20 (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jeju United FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Jeju United FC, 4 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 54% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 41% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.26 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.093 / defence 0.904 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.851 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.337. Data: 56 Jeju United FC games / 56 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 38% | Draw 35% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Jeju United FC 60% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 38% | Draw 35% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Jeju United FC 1.26 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.093 / def 0.904 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.851 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Jeju United FC 0 - 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 38% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (9 meetings): Jeju United FC 2W | Draws 3 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (1.09) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
38%
2.64
35%
2.82
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.29
1.03
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.03 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Jeju United FC have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 20W 16D 25L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 22W 20D 19L from 61 games, 1.41 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.25 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jeju United FC have posted 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 11W 10D 9L from 30 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 61 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 20W 16D 25L in their last 61 games (1.25 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 22W 20D 19L in their last 61 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.30 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
4
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 50%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Jeju United FC) and 53% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Jeju United FC's games and 67% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 53% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jeju United FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.26 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.03 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jeju United FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Gimcheon Sangmu FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.90 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 38% | Draw 35% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 41%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.25 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.