Incheon United 0-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Jeonbuk Motors travel to Sungui Arena Park to take on Incheon United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 May 2022, 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Incheon United's home record at Sungui Arena Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sungui Arena Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jeonbuk Motors — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jeonbuk Motors are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Incheon United in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 45% versus Jeonbuk Motors 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 40% | Jeonbuk Motors 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 0.97 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.913 / defence 0.885 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.184 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.184. Data: 43 Incheon United games / 43 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 28% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 41%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 20% | Jeonbuk Motors 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 28% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Incheon United 0.97 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.913 / def 0.885 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.184 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Jeonbuk Motors xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Incheon United 0 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 28% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Incheon United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.91) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
28%
3.56
30%
3.29
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.21
1.24
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
8%
12.30
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.5 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.24 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Incheon United come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 11D 15L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Jeonbuk Motors sit at 2.00 PPG from 38 outings (22W 10D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Jeonbuk Motors carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Incheon United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Incheon United's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeonbuk Motors have taken 1.79 points per game from 19 outings (9W 7D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Incheon United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.87 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 22W 10D 6L in their last 38 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.42 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Incheon United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2024, when Incheon United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Incheon United's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Incheon United
4
Draws
3
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Incheon United 1-0 Jeonbuk Motors.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 32%, Jeonbuk Motors 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Incheon United and 42% for Jeonbuk Motors.
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 37%; Incheon United have failed to score in 47% of games; Jeonbuk Motors in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Incheon United's recent matches and 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Incheon United's recent games and 42% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Incheon United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Incheon United 0-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 0.97 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.24 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Incheon United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.18 / defence 0.87, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 28% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 41%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 40%, Jeonbuk Motors 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.