Gwangju FC 0-2 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 40%, yet in-form Daegu FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Daegu FC make the trip to Gwangju Football Stadium to face Gwangju FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 08:30 UTC.
Current Form
Gwangju FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Gwangju FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gwangju FC's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Gwangju Football Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Gwangju FC are significantly better at Gwangju Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Daegu FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Daegu FC away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Daegu FC are 1.00 PPG clear of Gwangju FC in recent K League 1 fixtures (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Gwangju FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Daegu FC in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Gwangju FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 53% versus Daegu FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 45% | Daegu FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 0.97 xG and Daegu FC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.771 / defence 0.744 | Daegu FC attack 0.783 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.229. Gwangju FC's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gwangju FC's defence rating of 0.744 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 12 Gwangju FC games / 45 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 40% | Draw 34% | Daegu FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Daegu FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Daegu FC's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 32% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gwangju FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daegu FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. This conflicts with form data: Gwangju FC 70% | Daegu FC 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 40% | Draw 34% | Daegu FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Gwangju FC 0.97 / Daegu FC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.771 / def 0.744 | Daegu FC attack 0.783 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Daegu FC xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Gwangju FC 0 - 2 Daegu FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 40% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Gwangju FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gwangju FC and Daegu FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gwangju FC's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.78x) against Gwangju FC's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 12/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
40%
2.48
34%
2.96
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
1.69
0.72
Daegu FC xG
2.48
40%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.15
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 13.2 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.2%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 0.72 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gwangju FC come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 8D 20L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. Gwangju FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 1.21 PPG from 38 outings (10W 16D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Gwangju FC against 1.21 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gwangju FC's home form reads 5W 6D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Daegu FC have taken 0.84 points per game from 19 outings (2W 10D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daegu FC in 63%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 10W 8D 20L in their last 38 games (1.00 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 10W 16D 12L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.11 PPG; Daegu FC away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Daegu FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gwangju FC
4
Draws
4
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Daegu FC 1-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 53% for Gwangju FC, 79% for Daegu FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Gwangju FC) and 58% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Gwangju FC's games and 79% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 58% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gwangju FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Gwangju FC 0-2 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 0.97 xG and Daegu FC 0.72 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gwangju FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Daegu FC outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.77 / defence 0.74 against Daegu FC attack 0.78 / defence 0.99, drawn from 12/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 40% | Draw 34% | Daegu FC 26%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 45%, Daegu FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.00 PPG, Daegu FC 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Daegu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.