FC Anyang 2-2 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as FC Anyang welcome Daegu FC to Anyang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Daegu FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Anyang, 0 for Daegu FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with FC Anyang winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.67 xG and Daegu FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.019 / defence 1.169 | Daegu FC attack 0.954 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.010. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing FC Anyang's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 FC Anyang games / 45 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 50% | Draw 24% | Daegu FC 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Daegu FC 3.85. FC Anyang hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 50% | Draw 24% | Daegu FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Anyang 1.67 / Daegu FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 1.019 / def 1.169 | Daegu FC attack 0.954 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Daegu FC xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Daegu FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Daegu FC?
FC Anyang 2 - 2 Daegu FC.
Where is FC Anyang vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Daegu FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 50% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Anyang and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Daegu FC?
Record (1 meetings): FC Anyang 1W | Draws 0 | Daegu FC 0W.
What form are FC Anyang and Daegu FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Daegu FC away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Anyang's attack rating (1.02) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus FC Anyang's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
50%
2.00
24%
4.12
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.79
1.13
Daegu FC xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
5%
20.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.13 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2025, when FC Anyang won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Anyang's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Anyang
2
Draws
0
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Daegu FC?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 2, Daegu FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Daegu FC 2-2 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Daegu FC?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
FC Anyang and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as FC Anyang and Daegu FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.67 xG and Daegu FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 1.02 / defence 1.17 against Daegu FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.34, drawn from 13/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 50% | Draw 24% | Daegu FC 26%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.