Daegu FC 1-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Jeonbuk Motors travel to DGB Daegu Bank Park to take on Daegu FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022, 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Daegu Bank Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jeonbuk Motors — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 53% versus Jeonbuk Motors 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | Jeonbuk Motors 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.91 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.884 / defence 1.094 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.070 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.032 / away 1.071. Data: 34 Daegu FC games / 34 Jeonbuk Motors games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 27% | Draw 29% | Jeonbuk Motors 44%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 60% | Jeonbuk Motors 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 27% | Draw 29% | Jeonbuk Motors 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Daegu FC 0.91 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.884 / def 1.094 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.070 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.032 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Jeonbuk Motors xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Daegu FC 1 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 27% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 0.88x the league average against Jeonbuk Motors's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
27%
3.71
29%
3.47
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.17
1.25
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
8%
12.98
18%
5.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.4 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.25 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 15W 10D 13L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Jeonbuk Motors's form line: 22W 10D 6L from 38 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Jeonbuk Motors are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Daegu FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
On the road, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 9W 7D 3L from 19 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Daegu FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.87 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 22W 10D 6L in their last 38 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
1
Draws
6
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 53%, Jeonbuk Motors 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Daegu FC) and 42% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 37%; Daegu FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Jeonbuk Motors in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Daegu FC's recent games and 42% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors finished level at 1-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 0.91 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 27% | Draw 29% | Jeonbuk Motors 44%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Jeonbuk Motors 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.