Daegu FC 0-5 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daegu FC and Jeju United FC meet at DGB Arena in K League 1, Championship Round - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 05:00 UTC.
Current Form
Daegu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Daegu FC have posted 5W 3D 2L at DGB Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jeju United FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeju United FC's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Daegu FC, 1.80 for Jeju United FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Daegu FC 54% and Jeju United FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 42% | Jeju United FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.04 xG and Jeju United FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.919 / defence 1.042 | Jeju United FC attack 0.950 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 1.264. Jeju United FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Daegu FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Daegu FC games / 33 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 31% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Jeju United FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 50% | Jeju United FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 31% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Daegu FC 1.04 / Jeju United FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.919 / def 1.042 | Jeju United FC attack 0.950 / def 1.206 | league avg home 0.939 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Jeju United FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC 0 - 5 Jeju United FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 31% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Daegu FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (0.92) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.95x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
31%
3.26
28%
3.54
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.29
1.25
Jeju United FC xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
9%
11.38
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.25 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Daegu FC's recent record stands at 13W 10D 10L from 33 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 8L across 33 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.30 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Daegu FC have managed 7W 6D 3L from 16 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 4W 9D 3L across 16 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Daegu FC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 67%.
Last 33 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 13W 10D 10L in their last 33 games (1.48 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 9W 16D 8L in their last 33 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.69 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 0-4 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daegu FC
3
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 56%, Jeju United FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Daegu FC) and 44% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 38%; Jeju United FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Daegu FC's games and 56% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Daegu FC's recent games and 44% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Jeju United FC run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Daegu FC 0-5 at DGB Arena, Championship Round - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.04 xG and Jeju United FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Daegu FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Jeju United FC outscored their 1.25 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Jeju United FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 31% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 41%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 42%, Jeju United FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.48 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.