Daegu FC 0-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Daegu Bank Park plays host to Daegu FC versus Gwangju FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Daegu FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Daegu Bank Park: 3W 5D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
Gwangju FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gwangju FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gwangju FC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Daegu FC, 1.30 for Gwangju FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Daegu FC 2W, Gwangju FC 0W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 3–2 with Daegu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Gwangju FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 49% versus Gwangju FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 41% | Gwangju FC 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.29 xG and Gwangju FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.927 / defence 0.946 | Gwangju FC attack 0.952 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.118. Data: 56 Daegu FC games / 56 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 43% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Gwangju FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Daegu FC 50% | Gwangju FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 43% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Daegu FC 1.29 / Gwangju FC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.927 / def 0.946 | Gwangju FC attack 0.952 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Gwangju FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Daegu FC 0 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 43% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Daegu FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
Record (4 meetings): Daegu FC 2W | Draws 2 | Gwangju FC 0W.
What form are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Gwangju FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.95x) against Daegu FC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.57
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.29
1.01
Gwangju FC xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.01 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 18W 22D 21L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gwangju FC's form line: 25W 12D 24L from 61 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Gwangju FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.43 for Gwangju FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (10W 14D 6L).
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 10W 8D 12L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daegu FC are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.26 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 61 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Blended
Gwangju FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 18W 22D 21L in their last 61 games (1.25 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 25W 12D 24L in their last 61 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.47 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Daegu FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daegu FC
4
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 4, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Daegu FC 1-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 50%, Gwangju FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Daegu FC) and 37% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Daegu FC have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Gwangju FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 57% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Daegu FC's recent games and 37% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gwangju FC defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Daegu FC 0-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.29 xG and Gwangju FC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daegu FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Gwangju FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 43% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 29%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Gwangju FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 41%, Gwangju FC 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.25 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.