Al Wehda Club 2-1 Al Orubah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wehda Club at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al Orubah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Orubah make the trip to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to face Al Wehda Club in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Wehda Club have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Wehda Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Wehda Club's home record at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Orubah's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Al Orubah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Al Wehda Club's favour (1.00 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.82 xG and Al Orubah 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.163 / defence 1.257 | Al Orubah attack 0.717 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.231. Data: 35 Al Wehda Club games / 1 Al Orubah games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 54% | Draw 23% | Al Orubah 23%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Al Orubah 4.35. Al Wehda Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wehda Club are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wehda Club if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al Orubah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 54% | Draw 23% | Al Orubah 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.82 / Al Orubah 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 1.163 / def 1.257 | Al Orubah attack 0.717 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al Orubah xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al Orubah kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Orubah kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Orubah?
Al Wehda Club 2 - 1 Al Orubah.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al Orubah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al Orubah part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Orubah is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al Orubah?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 54% chance of winning, Al Orubah a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Orubah?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al Orubah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al Orubah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Orubah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Orubah in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Al Orubah (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Wehda Club's attack rating (1.16) and Al Orubah's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Orubah's attack (0.72x) against Al Wehda Club's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.36
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.93
1.11
Al Orubah xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
4%
26.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al Orubah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al Orubah expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.11 for Al Orubah, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al Orubah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Al Wehda Club have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Orubah's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Al Orubah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Wehda Club are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Orubah.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wehda Club are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Al Orubah are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al Orubah in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Early Season
Al Orubah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Orubah in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Orubah have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Wehda Club
0
Draws
1
Al Orubah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Orubah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 1, Al Orubah have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al Orubah last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Al Orubah 4-2 Al Wehda Club.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al Orubah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al Orubah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 0% of Al Orubah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al Orubah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 0% of Al Orubah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al Orubah tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Orubah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Wehda Club edge out Al Orubah 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Al Orubah 2-1 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.82 xG and Al Orubah 1.11 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.16 / defence 1.26 against Al Orubah attack 0.72 / defence 1.19, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 54% | Draw 23% | Al Orubah 23%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 100%, Al Orubah 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wehda Club arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Wehda Club managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Orubah scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.