Al Taawon 2-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Al-Fateh travel to Al Taawoun Club Stadium to take on Al Taawon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 16:25 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon's home record at Al Taawoun Club Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Taawoun Club Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al Taawon are significantly better at Al Taawoun Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Taawon are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Fateh 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Al-Fateh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 51% and Al-Fateh 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 41% | Al-Fateh 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.78 xG and Al-Fateh 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.013 / defence 0.764 | Al-Fateh attack 0.839 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.231. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al Taawon's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Al Taawon games / 39 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 61% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 16%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Fateh 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Al-Fateh lead the H2H ledger, but Al Taawon carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 30% | Al-Fateh 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Al Taawoun Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 16:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 61% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Taawon 1.78 / Al-Fateh 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.013 / def 0.764 | Al-Fateh attack 0.839 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Al-Fateh xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:25 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Al Taawon 2 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawoun Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 61% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Record (6 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 3W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.01) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.1%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.38
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.57
0.79
Al-Fateh xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
3%
36.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.79 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 18W 12D 9L from 39 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 17L across 39 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 10W 4D 5L from 19 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 6W 4D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.56 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 74%.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 18W 12D 9L in their last 39 games (1.69 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 13W 9D 17L in their last 39 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.79 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Taawon have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2021, when Al-Fateh won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
2
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al Taawon 3-2 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Taawon at 53%, Al-Fateh at 84%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Al Taawon and 79% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al Taawon's games and 84% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Al Taawon's matches and 79% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Fateh 2-0 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.78 xG and Al-Fateh 0.79 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.01 / defence 0.76 against Al-Fateh attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 61% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 16%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 41%, Al-Fateh 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.