Al-Fateh 2-4 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood meet at Al Fateh Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 16:10 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Okhdood have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Okhdood away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Al-Fateh, 1.00 for Al Okhdood — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Fateh, 0 for Al Okhdood and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 74% versus Al Okhdood 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 66% | Al Okhdood 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.64 xG and Al Okhdood 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.005 / defence 0.982 | Al Okhdood attack 0.809 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.255. Data: 38 Al-Fateh games / 38 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 52% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Al Okhdood 4.35. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 70% | Al Okhdood 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 16:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 52% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Fateh 1.64 / Al Okhdood 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.005 / def 0.982 | Al Okhdood attack 0.809 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Al Okhdood xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 16:10 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Fateh 2 - 4 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 52% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 1 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 1.00x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.81x) against Al-Fateh's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
52%
1.91
25%
4.06
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.64
1.00
Al Okhdood xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
4%
22.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.00 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fateh come into this having played 38 games, going 13W 9D 16L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.89 PPG from 38 outings (9W 7D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Al-Fateh against 0.89 for Al Okhdood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Fateh's home form reads 7W 5D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 0.74 points per game from 19 outings (3W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.89 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al Okhdood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 9W 7D 22L in their last 38 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.37 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
2
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al Okhdood have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Al Okhdood 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 63%, Al Okhdood 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Fateh) and 47% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 26% of games; Al Okhdood in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 42% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 47% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Okhdood cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al-Fateh 2-4 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.64 xG and Al Okhdood 1.00 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al Okhdood outscored their 1.00 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Al Okhdood attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 52% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 23%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Al Okhdood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 66%, Al Okhdood 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.26 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.