Al Shabab 1-2 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Shabab face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Al-Nassr travel to Al-Shabab Club Stadium to take on Al Shabab. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 October 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab's home record at Al-Shabab Club Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.80 exceeds their overall 2.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Nassr are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Al-Nassr have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Al Shabab's 1 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 2–3 with Al-Nassr winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al-Nassr trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 42% versus Al-Nassr 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 42% | Al-Nassr 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.29 xG and Al-Nassr 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.059 / defence 0.854 | Al-Nassr attack 1.510 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.237. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.510 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Al Shabab games / 40 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 45%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Nassr 2.22. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Al Shabab 50% | Al-Nassr 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Shabab 1.29 / Al-Nassr 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.059 / def 0.854 | Al-Nassr attack 1.510 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Al-Nassr xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Al Shabab 1 - 2 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 31% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Nassr?
Record (6 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 4W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Nassr in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.06) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
31%
3.24
25%
4.07
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.88
1.59
Al-Nassr xG
3.24
31%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
6%
15.94
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.59 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Shabab come into this having played 40 games, going 16W 8D 16L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.40 PPG from 40 outings (30W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Shabab's home form reads 10W 2D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.58 points per game from 19 outings (16W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.85 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 65%.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al-Nassr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 30W 6D 4L in their last 40 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.68 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.58 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 7 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2023, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
2
Draws
7
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2026, when Al Shabab 2-4 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 53%, Al-Nassr 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Al Shabab and 84% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al Shabab's games and 63% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Al Shabab's matches and 84% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al Shabab 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Shabab 1-2 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.29 xG and Al-Nassr 1.59 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.06 / defence 0.85 against Al-Nassr attack 1.51 / defence 0.84, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 45%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 42%, Al-Nassr 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.