Al Shabab 1-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Shabab (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Shabab face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Al-Hazm travel to Al-Shabab Club Stadium to take on Al Shabab. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 September 2025, 16:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hazm — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Shabab register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Hazm in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al Shabab: 4 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Hazm, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2024, ended 3–0 with Al Shabab winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Shabab and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.70 xG and Al-Hazm 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.092 / defence 1.170 | Al-Hazm attack 0.819 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.549. Data: 35 Al Shabab games / 1 Al-Hazm games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Hazm 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Sep 2025, 16:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Al Shabab 1.70 / Al-Hazm 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.092 / def 1.170 | Al-Hazm attack 0.819 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Al-Hazm xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 16:35 on Friday 12 September 2025 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Al Shabab 1 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 43% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm?
Record (4 meetings): Al Shabab 4W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Hazm in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.23
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.19
1.48
Al-Hazm xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
6%
16.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.48 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hazm by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Shabab heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jan 2026, when Al Shabab won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Al Shabab
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm?
From 7 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 6, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Al-Hazm 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al Shabab's games and 100% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Al Shabab's recent games and 0% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Hazm 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Hazm 1-0 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.70 xG and Al-Hazm 1.48 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Hazm landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.09 / defence 1.17 against Al-Hazm attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 34%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 100%, Al-Hazm 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Al Shabab winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Shabab conceded 0 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.