Al Riyadh 1-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Fahd International Stadium plays host to Al Riyadh versus Al-Fateh in Pro League (matchday 13). Kick-off: Thursday 9 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Al Riyadh (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al Riyadh's home record over their last 6 home games: 2W 1D 3L (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Al-Fateh have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Al-Fateh have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al-Fateh are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Al Riyadh — key trading statistics (last 12 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (last 12 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Riyadh 42% and Al-Fateh 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Riyadh 67% | Al-Fateh 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.07 xG and Al-Fateh 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.729 / defence 1.186 | Al-Fateh attack 1.225 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.377. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Al-Fateh have an above-average attack rating of 1.225, which lifts their away xG to 2.00. Data: built from Al Riyadh's last 12 games and Al-Fateh's last 42.
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 20% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 59%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 5.11 | Draw 4.60 | Al-Fateh 1.70. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Riyadh's last 6 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Riyadh 33% (last 6 home games) | Al-Fateh 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 20% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Al Riyadh 1.07 / Al-Fateh 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.729 / def 1.186 | Al-Fateh attack 1.225 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Al-Fateh xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh FAQs
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 9 November 2023 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Al Riyadh 1 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 20% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Riyadh's attack rating (0.73) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (1.23x) against Al Riyadh's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from Al Riyadh's last 12 games and Al-Fateh's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
20%
5.11
22%
4.60
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
3.07
2.00
Al-Fateh xG
5.11
20%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
14%
7.39
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
3%
37.74
20%
4.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 2.00 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Riyadh come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 2D 7L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Al-Fateh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Riyadh's home form reads 2W 1D 3L across their last 6 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 2.17 points per game from their last 6 away games (4W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Riyadh are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 2.33 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 83%.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Riyadh (Home) vs Al-Fateh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh Form FAQs
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 2.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Riyadh
3
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Riyadh have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Al Riyadh 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh?
Al Riyadh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Al Riyadh, 100% for Al-Fateh — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al Riyadh and 100% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al Riyadh's games and 100% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Riyadh's matches and 100% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 83% of Al-Fateh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.07 xG and Al-Fateh 2.00 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fateh landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.73 / defence 1.19 against Al-Fateh attack 1.23 / defence 0.96, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 20% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 59%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 67%, Al-Fateh 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.