Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al Taawon.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon meet at King Fahd International Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 7W 3D 0L at King Fahd International Stadium — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Hilal Saudi FC. A 0.70 PPG lead over Al Taawon (2.80 vs 2.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Taawon in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Hilal Saudi FC lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2023, ended 4–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45% versus Al Taawon 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% | Al Taawon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.64 xG and Al Taawon 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.281 / defence 0.711 | Al Taawon attack 1.057 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.374. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.711 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 42 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Al Taawon 4.35. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al Taawon 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.64 / Al Taawon 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.281 / def 0.711 | Al Taawon attack 1.057 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al Taawon xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 10 November 2023 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 0 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 51% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.06x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.89
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.03
Al Taawon xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
4%
22.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.03 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 27W 10D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 23W 11D 8L from 42 games, 1.90 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.17 PPG for Al-Hilal Saudi FC against 1.90 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.24 PPG from 21 outings (14W 5D 2L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 12W 5D 4L from 21 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.60 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 64%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 27W 10D 5L in their last 42 games (2.17 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 23W 11D 8L in their last 42 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.24 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al Taawon have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-2 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57%, Al Taawon 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 48% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al Taawon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 62% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 48% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Taawon 2-0 at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.64 xG and Al Taawon 1.03 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Taawon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.28 / defence 0.71 against Al Taawon attack 1.06 / defence 0.83, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 23%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%, Al Taawon 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taawon's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 PPG, Al Taawon 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.