Al-Raed 1-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Raed face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Nassr make the trip to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to face Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Raed (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Al-Nassr have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Al-Nassr are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 4 meetings, Al-Nassr have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Al-Raed's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2023, ended 0–4 with Al-Nassr winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Raed — key trading statistics (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 51% versus Al-Nassr 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 69% | Al-Nassr 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.05 xG and Al-Nassr 2.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.938 / defence 1.116 | Al-Nassr attack 1.508 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.430. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.508 — the away xG of 2.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Al-Raed games / 35 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 15% | Draw 18% | Al-Nassr 67%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 6.67 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Nassr 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Raed 40% | Al-Nassr 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 15% | Draw 18% | Al-Nassr 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Raed 1.05 / Al-Nassr 2.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.938 / def 1.116 | Al-Nassr attack 1.508 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
2.41
Al-Nassr xG
59%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Raed 1 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 15% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 67% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Nassr?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 3W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.94) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.51x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 2.41.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.1%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
15%
6.70
18%
5.61
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.46
2.41
Al-Nassr xG
6.70
15%
Home win
5.61
18%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
9%
11.09
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
1%
74.33
23%
4.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Al-Raed and 2.41 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 10W 8D 17L from 35 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr, meanwhile, have gone 23W 7D 5L across 35 games — 2.17 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Raed heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 6W 3D 9L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Nassr's away record stands at 10W 4D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Raed are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.23 scored and 0.66 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al-Nassr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 10W 8D 17L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 23W 7D 5L in their last 35 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 4-0 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
2
Draws
5
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Nassr?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 50%, Al-Nassr 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Al-Raed and 56% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 56%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Nassr in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 28% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Al-Raed's matches and 56% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Raed 1-3 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.05 xG and Al-Nassr 2.41 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Al-Nassr attack 1.51 / defence 0.80, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 15% | Draw 18% | Al-Nassr 67%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 69%, Al-Nassr 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Raed (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.