Abha 1-3 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Abha at 41%, yet in-form Al-Ettifaq provide a compelling counter-argument — this Abha vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Al-Ettifaq travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Abha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 September 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Abha stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Abha have posted 5W 2D 3L at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ettifaq — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Abha have won 2, Al-Ettifaq 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Abha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Abha in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 54% versus Al-Ettifaq 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 63% | Al-Ettifaq 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.30 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 1.025 / defence 0.955 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.817 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.408. Data: 35 Abha games / 35 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 41% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 31%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ettifaq 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Abha are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ettifaq (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Abha 70% | Al-Ettifaq 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 41% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Abha 1.30 / Al-Ettifaq 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 1.025 / def 0.955 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.817 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Abha (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Abha vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Abha 1 - 3 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Abha vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Abha vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 41% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Abha and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (4 meetings): Abha 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Abha and Al-Ettifaq in?
Abha (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Abha's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
41%
2.44
28%
3.63
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Abha xG
Total xG
2.40
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Abha and 1.10 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Abha's recent record stands at 12W 3D 20L from 35 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 14L across 35 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.11 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Abha have managed 8W 3D 6L from 17 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 4W 4D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ettifaq's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.03 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 12W 3D 20L in their last 35 games (1.11 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 13W 8D 14L in their last 35 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Abha's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.59 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ettifaq have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2024, when Al-Ettifaq won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Abha's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Abha
1
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ettifaq?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Al-Ettifaq 3-0 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 65%, Al-Ettifaq 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Abha) and 35% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Abha's recent matches and 29% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Abha vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Abha's recent games and 35% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Abha 1-3 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.30 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.82 / defence 0.89, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 41% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 31%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 63%, Al-Ettifaq 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.11 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Abha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.