Al-Nassr 1-3 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Raed.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Nassr and Al-Raed meet at Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 7 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Nassr's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's home record at Al Awal Park at King Saud University: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Raed (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Raed have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Nassr. A 1.10 PPG lead over Al-Raed (2.50 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Raed in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Al-Nassr have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Al-Raed managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 52% versus Al-Raed 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 71% | Al-Raed 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.29 xG and Al-Raed 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.483 / defence 1.099 | Al-Raed attack 0.921 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.483. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.483 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Al-Nassr games / 52 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Raed 4.17. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 70% | Al-Raed 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 71% | xG Al-Nassr 2.29 / Al-Raed 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.483 / def 1.099 | Al-Raed attack 0.921 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al-Raed xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 7 March 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Al-Nassr 1 - 3 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 54% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Raed?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Nassr 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Raed 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Raed in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (0.92x) against Al-Nassr's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
54%
1.84
22%
4.52
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.79
1.50
Al-Raed xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.44
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
10%
9.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
2%
41.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.50 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.31 PPG on a 37W 9D 6L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 14W 12D 26L from 52 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.27 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Raed.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.50 PPG from 26 outings (20W 5D 1L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 5W 9D 12L from 26 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.44 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.31 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 37W 9D 6L in their last 52 games (2.31 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 14W 12D 26L in their last 52 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.50 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 4-0 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Raed have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Raed?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 58%, Al-Raed 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Al-Nassr and 62% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Raed in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Nassr's games and 58% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al-Nassr's matches and 62% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Nassr.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al-Nassr 1-3 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.29 xG and Al-Raed 1.50 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Raed outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.48 / defence 1.10 against Al-Raed attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 24%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Al-Raed win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 71%, Al-Raed 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Raed's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Al-Raed winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.