Al-Nassr 4-4 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Awal Park at King Saud University plays host to Al-Nassr versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Thursday 29 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Nassr have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Al Awal Park at King Saud University this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hazm (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 2.00 in Al-Nassr's favour (2.70 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Hazm in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al-Nassr have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Al-Hazm managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 5–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 71% and Al-Hazm 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 90% | Al-Hazm 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.34 xG and Al-Hazm 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.366 / defence 0.874 | Al-Hazm attack 0.747 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.444. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Al-Nassr games / 21 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 68% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Hazm 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 60% | Al-Hazm 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 68% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Nassr 2.34 / Al-Hazm 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.366 / def 0.874 | Al-Hazm attack 0.747 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al-Hazm xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 29 February 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Nassr 4 - 4 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 68% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Nassr 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.37) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.75x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
68%
1.48
20%
5.06
13%
7.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.28
0.94
Al-Hazm xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
7.93
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
10%
10.39
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
1%
82.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.94 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 17W 1D 3L from 21 games, a 2.48 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 2W 8D 11L across 21 games — 0.67 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 8W 1D 1L from 10 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 0W 6D 4L across 10 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.86 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.00 scored and 2.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 71%.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 17W 1D 3L in their last 21 games (2.48 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 8D 11L in their last 21 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.50 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 1-5 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Nassr 4-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Al-Nassr, 80% for Al-Hazm — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Al-Nassr and 50% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Nassr's games and 80% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Al-Nassr's matches and 50% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm finished level at 4-4 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.34 xG and Al-Hazm 0.94 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hazm outscored their 0.94 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.37 / defence 0.87 against Al-Hazm attack 0.75 / defence 1.16, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 68% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 13%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 90%, Al-Hazm 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.