Al-Ittihad FC 2-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC host Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 7W 1D 2L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium this season.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 2.20 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Ittihad FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Al-Fateh have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 5.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 4–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 5.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 61% and Al-Fateh 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 66% | Al-Fateh 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.79 xG and Al-Fateh 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.573 / defence 0.909 | Al-Fateh attack 0.791 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.248. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.573 — their λ of 2.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Al-Ittihad FC games / 44 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 77% | Draw 14% | Al-Fateh 9%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.30 | Draw 7.14 | Al-Fateh 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (77%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 77% | Draw 14% | Al-Fateh 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.79 / Al-Fateh 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.573 / def 0.909 | Al-Fateh attack 0.791 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.79
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Al-Fateh xG
56%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 77% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 9% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.57x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.79. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
77%
1.31
14%
7.14
9%
10.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.79
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.68
0.90
Al-Fateh xG
1.31
77%
Home win
7.14
14%
Draw
10.67
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
6%
16.22
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
1%
173.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.79 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.90 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 44 games, going 25W 6D 13L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.14 PPG from 44 outings (13W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 13W 2D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.05 points per game from 21 outings (6W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.48 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 75%.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 25W 6D 13L in their last 44 games (1.84 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 13W 11D 20L in their last 44 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad FC at 76%, Al-Fateh at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Al-Ittihad FC and 76% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 81% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 76% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fateh 2-0 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.79 xG and Al-Fateh 0.90 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fateh landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.57 / defence 0.91 against Al-Fateh attack 0.79 / defence 1.22, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 77% | Draw 14% | Al-Fateh 9%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 66%, Al-Fateh 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.