Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Thursday 31 October 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Al-Ittihad FC have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad FC, 2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 64% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 69% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.654 / defence 1.014 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.013 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.307. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.654 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Al-Ittihad FC games / 42 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.85. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 80% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 31 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.94 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.654 / def 1.014 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.013 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 31 October 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 52% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.65x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
52%
1.94
22%
4.54
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.28
1.34
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
14%
6.98
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
4%
26.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.34 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 23W 6D 13L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 22W 10D 10L from 42 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad FC on 1.79 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 1.95 PPG from 21 outings (13W 2D 6L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 9W 5D 7L from 21 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.88 scored and 1.02 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 23W 6D 13L in their last 42 games (1.79 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 22W 10D 10L in their last 42 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad FC at 76%, Al-Ahli Jeddah at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Al-Ittihad FC and 67% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 57% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 67% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.34 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.65 / defence 1.01 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.01 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 26%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 69%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad FC 1.79 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.