Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6-0 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al Kholood.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC host Al Kholood at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 8 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 7W 3D 0L at Kingdom Arena — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Al Kholood have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2025, ended 3–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 5.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al Kholood in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% versus Al Kholood 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Al Kholood 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.08 xG and Al Kholood 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.289 / defence 0.744 | Al Kholood attack 1.062 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.406. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.744 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 61 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Draw 21% | Al Kholood 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Al Kholood 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al Kholood 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Draw 21% | Al Kholood 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.08 / Al Kholood 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.289 / def 0.744 | Al Kholood attack 1.062 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al Kholood xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 8 April 2026 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6 - 0 Al Kholood.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 60% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Kholood?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al Kholood 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Kholood in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.29x the league average against Al Kholood's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.81
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.19
1.11
Al Kholood xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
13%
7.97
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
2%
40.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.11 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.30 PPG on a 42W 14D 5L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Kholood's form line: 20W 6D 35L from 61 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Kholood.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.40 PPG from 30 outings (22W 6D 2L).
On the road, Al Kholood have gone 9W 3D 18L from 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.69 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.28 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 42W 14D 5L in their last 61 games (2.30 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 20W 6D 35L in their last 61 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.40 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Kholood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Kholood in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Kholood runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 8 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draws
0
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Kholood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, Al Kholood have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6-0 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Kholood?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57%, Al Kholood 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 63% for Al Kholood. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al Kholood in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 63% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 63% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Kholood 6-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.08 xG and Al Kholood 1.11 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Kholood landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.74 against Al Kholood attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Draw 21% | Al Kholood 20%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70%, Al Kholood 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Kholood's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.