Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al Khaleej Saihat.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kingdom Arena plays host to Al-Hilal Saudi FC versus Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Thursday 17 April 2025 at 16:50 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kingdom Arena, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at Kingdom Arena than their overall form suggests.
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Al-Hilal Saudi FC's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Hilal Saudi FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 2–3 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 72% | Al Khaleej Saihat 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.79 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.716 / defence 1.043 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.026 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.324. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.716 — their λ of 2.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 61 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 61 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66% | Draw 17% | Al Khaleej Saihat 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52 | Draw 5.88 | Al Khaleej Saihat 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (66%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.21. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.21 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.79 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Al Khaleej Saihat 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Apr 2025, 16:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66% | Draw 17% | Al Khaleej Saihat 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 71% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.79 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.716 / def 1.043 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.026 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.79
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
71%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 16:50 on Thursday 17 April 2025 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 66% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 17% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W | Draws 0 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.72x the league average against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (1.03x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.6%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
66%
1.51
17%
6.06
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
5.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.79
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
4.21
1.42
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
1.51
66%
Home win
6.06
17%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
6%
16.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
1%
93.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 2.79 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.42 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 4.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 49W 7D 5L from 61 games, a 2.52 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 27L across 61 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.37 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Khaleej Saihat heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 26W 2D 2L from 30 games — 2.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record stands at 11W 7D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.87 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.13 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 49W 7D 5L in their last 61 games (2.52 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 18W 16D 27L in their last 61 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.67 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 1-5 on 28 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draws
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 9 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 1-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%, Al Khaleej Saihat 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 50% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 60% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 3-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.79 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.42 xG, a combined 4.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.72 / defence 1.04 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66% | Draw 17% | Al Khaleej Saihat 17%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 72%, Al Khaleej Saihat 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.