Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al-Hilal Saudi FC versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 2.80 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad FC's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Hilal Saudi FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Ittihad FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% versus Al-Ittihad FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Al-Ittihad FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.74 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.320 / defence 0.989 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.987 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.301. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 37 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ittihad FC 3.57. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.74 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.320 / def 0.989 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.987 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Al-Ittihad FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 48% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.32x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (0.99x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
48%
2.06
24%
4.25
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.01
1.27
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
5%
20.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.27 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 34W 3D 0L from 37 games, a 2.84 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 6D 12L across 37 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ittihad FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 17W 1D 0L from 18 games — 2.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 8W 4D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.97 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.97 scored and 1.51 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's attacking output running into Al-Hilal Saudi FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 34W 3D 0L in their last 37 games (2.84 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 19W 6D 12L in their last 37 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.89 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 4-1 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al-Ittihad FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56%, Al-Ittihad FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 56% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ittihad FC 3-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.74 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.27 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.32 / defence 0.99 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 28%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70%, Al-Ittihad FC 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.84 PPG against 1.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.