Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC host Al-Fateh at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 29 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Kingdom Arena this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Hilal Saudi FC: 8 wins from 10 previous clashes against 2 for Al-Fateh, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% versus Al-Fateh 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al-Fateh 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.06 xG and Al-Fateh 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.347 / defence 0.911 | Al-Fateh attack 0.844 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.442. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 34 Al-Fateh games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Fateh 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% | Al-Fateh 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.06 / Al-Fateh 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.347 / def 0.911 | Al-Fateh attack 0.844 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al-Fateh xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 29 October 2026 at Kingdom Arena.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 59% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 8W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.72
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.17
1.11
Al-Fateh xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
3%
39.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.11 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.49 PPG on a 26W 9D 0L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh's form line: 9W 10D 16L from 35 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.56 PPG from 18 outings (14W 4D 0L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 6D 10L from 18 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.54 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.17 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 26W 9D 0L in their last 35 games (2.49 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 9W 10D 16L in their last 35 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.56 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2025, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 9-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draws
2
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al-Fateh have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al-Fateh 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 39% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 56% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 39% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.