Al-Fayha 0-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Fayha face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al-Fayha in Pro League (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Thursday 14 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Fayha stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Fayha have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home: 3W 1D 3L from their last 7 away games — 1.43 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.43 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al-Fayha) versus 1.60 (Al-Ahli Jeddah). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Fayha, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2022, ended Al-Fayha 1–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 14% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 62% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.27 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.747 / defence 1.063 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.415 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.378. Al-Fayha's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.27. Al-Ahli Jeddah have an above-average attack rating of 1.415, which lifts their away xG to 2.07. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 46 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 16.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 22% | Draw 23% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.49 | Draw 4.42 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.27 / 2.07) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 7 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 71% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 14 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 22% | Draw 23% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Al-Fayha 1.27 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.747 / def 1.063 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.415 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah FAQs
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 14 December 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Fayha 0 - 4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 22% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.75) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Fayha's last 46 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
22%
4.49
23%
4.42
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.35
2.07
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
4.49
22%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
13%
7.96
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
3%
35.71
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 2.07 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 4W 7D 5L from 16 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 3L across 16 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 0W 4D 3L from their last 7 home games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.19 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 3W 1D 3L across their last 7 away games, a 1.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.00 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Fayha (Home) vs Al-Ahli Jeddah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 9W 4D 3L in their last 16 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 0.57 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 19 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Apr 2025, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won Al-Ahli Jeddah 5-0 Al-Fayha.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2026: Al-Fayha 2-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha's games tend to start slowly — only 14% have a goal by half-time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 29%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Al-Fayha) and 86% (Al-Ahli Jeddah). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 86% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 71% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 71% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 29% of Al-Fayha's matches and 86% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 14% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Fayha 0-4 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.27 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.07 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 2.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.75 / defence 1.06 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.42 / defence 1.09, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 22% | Draw 23% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.